There’s a Pretty Good Chance Donald Trump Would Die in Office


Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore

Recently a lot of Trump supporters have taken to conspiratorially speculating on Hillary Clinton’s health, and this includes some official Trump surrogates.

I’ve always found our obsession with a candidate’s age and health to be a bit morbid. There’s a risk that any human being could die in any given 4-8 years, and the precise reason we have a presidential chain of succession is to allay those fears.

Since plenty of Trump supporters have decided to make the health/age factor an issue, I think it’s fitting to remind folks that Donald Trump is old. If he were to serve 8 years as president, he would exit office at 78, which is right around the median life expectancy for American males.

To drive the point home, I plugged in a 70-year old white male into a great visual “death simulator,” which shows the risk of kicking the bucket. The results?


The good news is that there would be a 64% chance of a living, breathing President Trump by the end of 8 years. The bad news: there’s a 1-in-3 chance that Donald wouldn’t make it.

Some might argue that he would have access to tremendous health care, but surely that’s mitigated by both the grueling schedule required of the leader of the free world and the unfortunate risk of assassination.

Hillary Clinton would theoretically enter office at age 69, so here’s her simulation:


Thanks to the female advantage in life expectancy, Hillary’s chances of dying in office are much lower, at 1-in-4.

This isn’t to say either Trump or Clinton are unfit to run and serve based on health and age factors. Again, the risk is always present, regardless of age. That being said, Trump supporters might want to calm down on the “she’ll die in office” conspiracy mongering.