October Surprise: Gillespie 48, Northam 47

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Virginia Democrats must be in a full panic mode today, as a new poll from Monmouth University has Republican Ed Gillespie edging Democrat Ralph Northam in the Virginia Governor’s race.

National Democrats have been hoping Northam would already have this race put to bed, but instead:

The campaign for governor of Virginia remains up for grabs, with Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam locked in a one point race. The Monmouth University Poll  finds the race becoming more regionally divided, with Gillespie widening the gap in Western Virginia and Northam picking up steam in Northern Virginia. Northam has a better net favorable rating, but Gillespie has built issue advantages in some key areas.

Currently, 48% of likely voters support Gillespie, the former national GOP party leader, and 47% support Northam, the Commonwealth’s current lieutenant governor. Libertarian Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 3% are undecided. Last month, Northam had a 49% to 44% edge over Gillespie while the race was tied at 44% each in July.

Especially important to note here is the trend. The last Monmouth survey had Northam with a 5-point lead, edging himself outside of the margin of error. Here we are, less than a month later, and Northam’s lead is entirely erased.

Gillespie continues to run a disciplined campaign, despite being outspent by Northam’s liberal special interest group allies. He’s on pace to shock the political world in a few short weeks.

  • When you take the Monmouth Poll and also add it to today’s other polls from Roanoke College and Christopher Newport University, that traditionally swing pro-D, but are also tight, the momentum right now is definitely with Gillespie.